← EFL League One 2025-26 · Wed, Aug 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 61% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.35 |
| Reading win | 17% | 5.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Bolton −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.66 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Mark O'Mahony · Reading |
| 43' | 🟨 | Charlie Savage · Reading |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mason Burstow · Bolton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Kami Doyle · Reading |
| 74' | 🟨 | Daniel Kyerewaa · Reading |
| 78' | 🟨 | Derrick Williams · Reading |
| 84' | ⚽ | Andre Garcia · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1544.28 | 1524.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.47 | -53.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 4.21 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 262.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |