← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Aug 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 36% | 2.66 |
| Stevenage win | 33% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Stevenage +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over | 36% | 2.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Port Vale |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordan Houghton · Stevenage |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Goode · Stevenage |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.09 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days | 18.00 | 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1568.65 | 1547.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.88 | 35.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 61.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |