← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Aug 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 41% | 2.35 |
| Northampton win | 30% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton +0.25 | 52% | 1.96 |
| Lincoln +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ryley Towler · Lincoln |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ethan Wheatley · Northampton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tyrese Fornah · Northampton |
| 79' | 🟨 | George Wickens · Lincoln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Lincoln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jack Perkins · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1375.14 | 1489.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.44 | -16.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.77 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | -1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 27.92 |
| state index | -1.26 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |