← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Aug 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Wigan win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Luton −0.75 | 50% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.56 |
| Over | 39% | 2.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | George Saville · Luton |
| 11' | 🟨 | Tobias Brenan · Wigan |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jason Kerr · Wigan |
| 67' | 🟨 | George Saville · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.88 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1575.00 | 1472.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.16 | 9.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 26.21 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 238.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |