← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Plymouth win | 24% | 4.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Lincoln −0.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.85 |
| Over | 46% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 10' | 🟨 | Ryley Towler · Lincoln |
| 23' | 🟨 | Bradley Ibrahim · Plymouth |
| 54' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Plymouth |
| 59' | ⚽ | James Collins · Lincoln |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | James Collins · Lincoln |
| 70' | 🟨 | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 74' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 74' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 78' | ⚽ | — · Plymouth |
| 80' | ⚽ | Xavier Amaechi · Plymouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
| 86' | 🟥 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brendon Galloway · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.07 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1560.09 | 1398.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.16 | 3.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 63.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |