⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Leyton Orient 2–2 Stockport

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport win36%2.70
Leyton Orient win34%2.98
Draw30%3.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport +051%1.98
Leyton Orient +049%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Aaron Connolly · Leyton Orient
21'🟨Oliver Norwood · Stockport
29'⚽Nathan Lowe · Stockport
34'🟨Jack Diamond · Stockport
35'🟨Daniel Happe · Leyton Orient
36'⚽Joseph Olowu · Stockport
57'⚽Aaron Connolly · Leyton Orient
90'⚽Ollie O'Neill · Leyton Orient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
13Shots8
2On target4
6Corners4
9Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeyton OrientStockport
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.590.69
cards avg (last 5)1.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBrisbane Road
coach days15.0015.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.15
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.402.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.606.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.193.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.590.52
elo1640.641725.30
elo momentum (last 5)13.1639.78
eye test v10.230.18
eye trend v1-0.09-0.45
first sub minute (last 10)57.4051.20
form points (last 5)12.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.501.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.66—
matches since blank1.0010.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)54.2053.60
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.503.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.402.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.0013.20
skill v1-0.250.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.80
state index0.831.11
sterile dominance v1-0.120.22
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.18
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00