← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 61% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.33 |
| Rotherham win | 16% | 5.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −1 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Rotherham −1 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.82 |
| Under | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | ArJany Martha · Rotherham |
| 32' | 🟨 | Dakarai Mafico · Cardiff |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lenny Agbaire · Rotherham |
| 43' | ⚽ | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
| 51' | 🟨 | Joel Bagan · Cardiff |
| 55' | ⚽ | Cian Ashford · Cardiff |
| 60' | ⚽ | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sean Raggett · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 1 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1512.18 | 1435.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.94 | 0.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 24.39 | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |