← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 43% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Bradford win | 29% | 3.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Bradford +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Millenic Alli · Luton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 30' | 🟨 | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
| 33' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Bradford |
| 48' | ⚽ | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Max Power · Bradford |
| 85' | ⚽ | Gideon Kodua · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Valley Parade |
| coach days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1576.94 | 1448.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.46 | 49.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 231.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |