← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 36% | 2.65 |
| Exeter win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Exeter +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Mansfield |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jack Fitzwater · Exeter |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sil Swinkels · Exeter |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 78' | 🟨 | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Mansfield |
| 86' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1519.13 | 1496.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.77 | 7.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |