← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Port Vale win | 43% | 2.34 |
| Burton win | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Port Vale +0.25 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Burton +0.25 | 50% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.72 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand