← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Durkin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 51% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.42 |
| Rotherham win | 21% | 4.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Rotherham −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Daniel Kemp · Stevenage |
| 35' | 🟨 | Joe Rafferty · Rotherham |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sean Raggett · Rotherham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Charlie Goode · Stevenage |
| 87' | 🟨 | Daniel Phillips · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 495.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1439.05 | 1444.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.78 | 6.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | — | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.05 |