← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 43% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.28 |
| Northampton win | 28% | 3.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Northampton +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.74 |
| Over | 44% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Elliott List · Northampton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Josh Neufville · Bradford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Bradford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Will Swan · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1386.09 | 1410.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.05 | 7.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 29.59 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |