← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 57% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Plymouth win | 20% | 5.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.75 | 52% | 1.95 |
| Plymouth −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.78 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | George Johnston · Bolton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Eoin Toal · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mason Burstow · Bolton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Bradley Ibrahim · Plymouth |
| 87' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1535.09 | 1406.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.09 | 4.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 59.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 31.80 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -1.89 |
| solidity v1 | — | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -2.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 2.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.47 |