← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 57% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 |
| Burton win | 20% | 4.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley −0.75 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Burton −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.88 |
| Under | 45% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 35' | ⚽ | Fábio Tavares · Burton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Barnsley |
| 55' | ⚽ | Caylan Vickers · Barnsley |
| 63' | 🟨 | David McGoldrick · Barnsley |
| 63' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley |
| 82' | 🟨 | John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Patrick Kelly · Barnsley |
| 90' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| coach days |
| 8.00 |
| 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1530.95 | 1543.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.43 | -4.27 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -1.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |