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Reading 0–2 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Aug 9, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: M. Corlett

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win44%2.15
Reading win29%3.41
Draw26%3.60

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield +0.2551%1.93
Reading +0.2549%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.89
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Charlie Savage · Reading
52'🟨Matty Jacob · Reading
53'🟨Daniel Kyerewaa · Reading
53'🟨Ryan Ledson · Huddersfield
64'🟨Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading
74'⚽Jack Whatmough · Huddersfield
85'🟨Alfie May · Huddersfield
90'⚽Cameron Ashia · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots12
2On target6
4Corners10
15Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricReadingHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.450.74
cards avg (last 5)1.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueSelect Car Leasing Stadium
coach days8.008.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.011.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.18
dominance (last 5)0.470.49
elo1556.751484.07
elo momentum (last 5)-14.38-15.71
eye test v1-0.540.60
eye trend v10.310.97
first sub minute (last 10)63.6050.70
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.710.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.710.76
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6072.00
possession avg (last 5)56.0053.00
rest days6.906.90
season ppg0.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.2013.00
skill v10.03-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.80
squad ageβ€”25.36
state index-0.06-0.50
sterile dominance v10.61-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.190.19
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.190.25
travel kmβ€”253.80
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00