← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: E. Bell
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stockport win | 41% | 2.55 |
| Bolton win | 31% | 3.67 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 52% | 2.11 |
| Stockport −0.25 | 48% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand