← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miles
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 37% | 2.60 |
| Rotherham win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Rotherham +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 2.00 |
| Over | 48% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 24' | 🟨 | George Byers · Port Vale |
| 29' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 32' | 🟥 | Jaheim Headley · Port Vale |
| 39' | 🟨 | Zak Jules · Rotherham |
| 53' | 🟨 | Daniel Gore · Rotherham |
| 60' | ⚽ | Connor Hall · Port Vale |
| 77' | 🟨 | Zak Jules · Rotherham |
| 77' | 🟥 | Zak Jules · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1537.73 | 1583.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.03 | -6.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |