← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 38% | 2.69 |
| Plymouth win | 35% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley +0 | 52% | 1.99 |
| Plymouth +0 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 2.00 |
| Under | 47% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Barnsley |
| 30' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 35' | 🟨 | David McGoldrick · Barnsley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bradley Ibrahim · Plymouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Barnsley |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bland · Barnsley |
| 50' | ⚽ | Caleb Watts · Plymouth |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Barnsley |
| 63' | 🟥 | Jack Shepherd · Barnsley |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jon Russell · Barnsley |
| 86' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1419.49 | 1517.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.76 | 19.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 46.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 27.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.46 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -1.10 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -3.04 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | — |