← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 40% | 2.60 |
| Burton win | 32% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0.25 | 53% | 2.00 |
| Mansfield +0.25 | 47% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 2.08 |
| Over | 48% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Charlie Webster · Burton |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jasper Moon · Burton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Charlie Webster · Burton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 76' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
| 76' | ⚽ | Baily Cargill · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Maris · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1535.76 | 1512.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.76 | 7.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.12 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |