← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 57% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.10 |
| Peterboro win | 20% | 4.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Peterboro −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Dylan Lawlor · Cardiff |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Bradley Ihionvien · Peterboro |
| 48' | ⚽ | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ollie Tanner · Cardiff |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ronan Kpakio · Cardiff |
| 67' | 🟨 | Joel Bagan · Cardiff |
| 85' | 🟨 | Harley Mills · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1369.24 | 1503.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.82 | -18.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | — |