← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 39% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 35% | 36% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Shrewsbury +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Liam Fraser · Crawley Town |
| 34' | 🟨 | John Marquis · Shrewsbury |
| 49' | 🟥 | Josh Feeney · Shrewsbury |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Rushian Hepburn-Murphy · Crawley Town |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ben Radcliffe · Crawley Town |
| 60' | ⚽ | Max Anderson · Crawley Town |
| 74' | 🟨 | George Nurse · Shrewsbury |
| 81' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury |
| 87' | ⚽ | Malvind Benning · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac England · Shrewsbury |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Croud Meadow |
| 🟨 |
| Toto Nsiala · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 63.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1287.96 | 1363.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.54 | 23.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| league points | 33.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 25.73 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |