← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Barlow
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rotherham win | 54% | 41% | 1.74 | fair |
| Peterboro win | 24% | 34% | 4.00 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.42 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Peterboro −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Rotherham −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.42 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |