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Huddersfield 1–4 Leyton Orient

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient win51%1.85
Huddersfield win25%3.96
Draw24%3.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient +0.551%1.90
Huddersfield +0.549%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.66
Under43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Daniel Agyei · Leyton Orient
24'⚽ (og)Jacob Chapman · Leyton Orient
34'🟨Jamie Donley · Leyton Orient
39'🟨Sean Clare · Leyton Orient
41'⚽Josh Koroma · Huddersfield
43'🟨Joe Taylor · Huddersfield
48'⚽Daniel Agyei · Leyton Orient
49'🟨Daniel Agyei · Leyton Orient
79'⚽Azeem Abdulai · Leyton Orient
90'🟨Rarmani Edmonds-Green · Leyton Orient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
16Shots12
6On target7
6Corners4
9Fouls17
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldLeyton Orient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.630.67
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smith's Stadium
coach days
63.00
1159.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.25
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.254.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.12
dominance (last 5)0.420.53
elo1472.121643.77
elo momentum (last 5)-49.2741.27
eye test v1-0.530.42
eye trend v10.820.51
first sub minute (last 10)50.1056.20
form points (last 5)0.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.561.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.690.76
league points64.0075.00
league rank10.006.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet14.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2070.80
possession avg (last 5)58.6052.20
rest days7.007.10
scorer concentration0.180.31
season ppg1.421.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.402.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.0013.00
skill v10.35-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.40
squad age25.36—
state index-1.070.87
sterile dominance v10.97-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.190.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.32
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.40