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Wrexham 3–0 Charlton

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham win39%2.42
Draw32%3.06
Charlton win29%3.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charlton −0.2553%1.84
Wrexham −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Oliver Rathbone · Wrexham
18'⚽Sam Smith · Wrexham
42'🟨Tyreece Campbell · Charlton
45'🟨Ryan Longman · Wrexham
65'🟨Sam Smith · Wrexham
81'⚽Sam Smith · Wrexham

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
7Shots10
4On target3
2Corners6
13Fouls8
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWrexhamCharlton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.50
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.570.70
cards avg (last 5)1.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSTōK Cae Ras
coach days
1395.00
450.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.21
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.852.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.15
dominance (last 5)0.610.57
elo1681.621650.68
elo momentum (last 5)5.2344.18
eye test v10.050.22
eye trend v1-0.200.04
first sub minute (last 10)63.1057.00
form points (last 5)9.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.40
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.810.71
league points86.0082.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2062.60
possession avg (last 5)55.4050.00
rest days5.105.10
scorer concentration0.130.20
season ppg1.951.86
shot diff avg (last 5)5.602.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.40
skill v10.14-1.35
sot against avg (last 5)2.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.40
state index0.791.00
sterile dominance v10.54-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.200.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.40