← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 39% | 36% | 2.45 | fair |
| Peterboro win | 36% | 41% | 2.71 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.82 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Peterboro +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Klaidi Lolos · Bolton |
| 18' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Bolton |
| 20' | 🟨 | Malik Mothersille · Peterboro |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Malik Mothersille · Peterboro |
| 24' | 🟨 | Abraham Odoh · Peterboro |
| 24' | 🟨 | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Chris Forino · Bolton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gethin Jones · Bolton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joel Randall · Bolton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ryan De Havilland · Peterboro |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Peterboro | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Weston Homes Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Hector Kyprianou · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 846.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1438.46 | 1483.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.56 | -57.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| league points | 50.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.56 | 25.18 |
| state index | -0.88 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |