← EFL League One 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 52% | 39% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.76 | value: +18% |
| Huddersfield win | 22% | 29% | 4.33 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Huddersfield −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | 🟨 | Josh Koroma · Huddersfield |
| 61' | ⚽ | Josh Koroma · Huddersfield |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dion Charles · Huddersfield |
| 74' | ⚽ | Fraser Horsfall · Stockport |
| 75' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Stockport |
| 86' | 🟨 | Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver Norwood · Stockport |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Kasumu · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟥 | Callum Marshall · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stockport | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.15 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Edgeley Park |
| coach days | 1267.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1578.14 | 1456.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.53 | -47.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.00 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 78.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 28.52 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |