← EFL League One 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Kennard-Kettle
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 60% | 47% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +5% |
| Shrewsbury win | 15% | 25% | 6.38 | value: +61% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −1 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Northampton −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.76 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Aaron Pierre · Shrewsbury |
| 26' | ⚽ | Aaron McGowan · Northampton |
| 32' | 🟨 | George Lloyd · Shrewsbury |
| 44' | ⚽ | Dara Costelloe · Northampton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Tyler Magloire · Northampton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ben Perry · Northampton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Dara Costelloe · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Dyche · Northampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 141.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1404.55 | 1281.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.81 | -11.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| league points | 47.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 27.50 |
| state index | -0.37 | -1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |