← EFL League One 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 44% | 34% | 2.21 | fair |
| Exeter win | 30% | 40% | 3.23 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Rushian Hepburn-Murphy · Crawley Town |
| 9' | ⚽ | Panutche Camará · Crawley Town |
| 23' | ⚽ | Rushian Hepburn-Murphy · Crawley Town |
| 25' | ⚽ | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 26' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 34' | 🟨 | Joel Colwill · Exeter |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ben Radcliffe · Crawley Town |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jeremy Kelly · Crawley Town |
| 54' | 🟨 | Edward Francis · Exeter |
| 62' | 🟨 | Alex Hartridge · Exeter |
| 78' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Liam Fraser · Crawley Town |
| 89' | 🟨 | Edward Francis · Exeter |
| 89' | 🟥 | Edward Francis · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 51.00 | 933.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1328.96 | 1420.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.89 | 7.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| league points | 37.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.70 | 25.98 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |