← EFL League One 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Coy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Wrexham win | 66% | 68% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +8% |
| Bristol Rvs win | 14% | 11% | 8.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wrexham −1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.