← EFL League One 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 57% | 47% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.17 | value: +4% |
| Barnsley win | 19% | 28% | 5.00 | value: +42% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Barnsley −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Barnsley |
| 19' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Barnsley |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marc Roberts · Barnsley |
| 35' | 🟨 | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bland · Barnsley |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ethan Galbraith · Leyton Orient |
| 63' | 🟨 | Randell Williams · Leyton Orient |
| 64' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley |
| 68' | ⚽ | Charlie Kelman · Leyton Orient |
| 72' | ⚽ | Sean Clare · Leyton Orient |
| 74' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Brisbane Road |
| ⚽ |
| Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1144.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1522.47 | 1454.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.31 | -2.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 42.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| league points | 66.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.26 | 25.34 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |