← EFL League One 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 61% | 54% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Northampton win | 15% | 21% | 6.67 | value: +37% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Charlton −1 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Luke Berry · Charlton |
| 12' | 🟨 | Conor Coventry · Charlton |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Dara Costelloe · Northampton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Aaron McGowan · Northampton |
| 71' | ⚽ | Matt Godden · Charlton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alexander Gilbert · Charlton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kayne Ramsay · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chuks Aneke · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thierry Small · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Valley |
| 🟨 |
| Max Dyche · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 442.00 | 138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1559.45 | 1409.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.78 | -2.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 76.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 60.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 26.29 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |