← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 44% | 54% | 2.16 | value: +17% |
| Crawley Town win | 29% | 22% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Crawley Town +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Jordan Brown · Leyton Orient |
| 30' | 🟨 | Panutche Camará · Crawley Town |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Junior Quitirna · Crawley Town |
| 52' | ⚽ | Charlie Kelman · Leyton Orient |
| 53' | 🟨 | Luke Hutchinson · Crawley Town |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Charlie Kelman · Leyton Orient |
| 69' | 🟨 | Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dominic Ball · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jamie Donley · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| coach days | 42.00 | 1138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1330.62 | 1512.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.63 | 11.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.72 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 24.53 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |