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Stevenage 3–1 Crawley Town

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stevenage win46%2.10
Draw28%3.45
Crawley Town win26%3.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crawley Town −0.554%1.80
Stevenage −0.546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Harvey White · Stevenage
50'🟨Charlie Goode · Stevenage
70'⚽Bradley Ibrahim · Crawley Town
85'🟨Bradley Ibrahim · Crawley Town
89'⚽Jamie Reid · Stevenage
90'⚽Daniel Kemp · Stevenage

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots9
4On target3
2Corners2
15Fouls9
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStevenageCrawley Town
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.520.62
cards avg (last 5)1.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLamex Stadium
coach days
369.00
35.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.12
dominance (last 5)0.590.49
elo1516.491446.10
elo momentum (last 5)-19.0910.67
eye test v1-0.81-0.36
eye trend v10.260.65
first sub minute (last 10)65.8056.30
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.580.55
league points49.0036.00
league rank13.0022.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6052.60
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.310.16
season ppg1.260.90
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8012.80
skill v1-1.350.13
sot against avg (last 5)2.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.80
state index-0.51-0.35
sterile dominance v1-1.000.24
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.300.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60