← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 70% | 68% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
| Barnsley win | 11% | 12% | 9.75 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley −1.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Birmingham −1.5 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟥 | Maël de Gevigney · Barnsley |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley |
| 47' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Birmingham |
| 54' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 55' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Birmingham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Barnsley |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luke Harris · Birmingham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bland · Barnsley |
| 82' | ⚽ | Kieran Dowell · Birmingham |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| ⚽ |
| Lukas Jutkiewicz · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 308.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1659.86 | 1441.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.45 | -45.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.71 |
| league points | 89.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.34 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.96 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 25.80 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.03 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |