← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 40% | 42% | 2.41 | fair |
| Bolton win | 33% | 33% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Blackpool −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Ashley Fletcher · Blackpool |
| 21' | 🟨 | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 35' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lee Evans · Blackpool |
| 43' | 🟨 | James Husband · Blackpool |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sonny Carey · Blackpool |
| 59' | ⚽ | Niall Ennis · Blackpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Morley · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Morley · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Aaron Morley · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| coach days | 209.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1533.66 | 1539.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.99 | 0.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 54.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.38 | 26.36 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 42.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |