β EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 42% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Stockport win | 28% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport β0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Wrexham β0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over | 36% | 2.69 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | π¨ | George Dobson Β· Wrexham |
| 24' | π¨ | Brad Hills Β· Stockport |
| 29' | β½ | Jay Rodriguez Β· Wrexham |
| 31' | π¨ | James McClean Β· Wrexham |
| 56' | π¨ | Eoghan O'Connell Β· Wrexham |
| 80' | π¨ | Brad Hills Β· Stockport |
| 80' | π₯ | Brad Hills Β· Stockport |
| 81' | π¨ | Sam Smith Β· Wrexham |
| 87' | π¨ | Steven Fletcher Β· Wrexham |
| 88' | π¨ | Arthur Okonkwo Β· Wrexham |
| 90' | π¨ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | STΕK Cae Ras |
| Oliver Rathbone Β· Wrexham |
| 90' | π¨ | Kyle Knoyle Β· Stockport |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1360.00 | 1237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1550.05 | 1556.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.63 | -6.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 71.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.47 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |