← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 56% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| Exeter win | 18% | 5.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Exeter −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Ed Turns · Exeter |
| 34' | 🟨 | Joe Whitworth · Exeter |
| 37' | 🟨 | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 50' | 🟨 | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 81' | 🟨 | James Collins · Lincoln |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alex Hartridge · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days |
| 507.00 |
| 903.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1558.52 | 1528.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.03 | 27.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 46.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 49.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |