← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 35% | 2.76 |
| Shrewsbury win | 35% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.21 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Shrewsbury +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Owen Dodgson · Burton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Dominic Gape · Shrewsbury |
| 72' | ⚽ | Rumarn Burrell · Burton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alex Gilliead · Shrewsbury |
| 86' | ⚽ | Terence Vancooten · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Croud Meadow |
| coach days | 14.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1465.57 | 1521.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.85 | 5.38 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 71.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.79 |
| league points | 28.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.91 | -1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |