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Huddersfield 5–1 Crawley Town

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win63%1.55
Draw22%4.57
Crawley Town win15%6.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield −153%1.84
Crawley Town −147%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Joe Taylor · Huddersfield
8'⚽ (og)Charlie Barker · Huddersfield
16'⚽Callum Marshall · Huddersfield
26'🟨Liam Fraser · Crawley Town
29'⚽Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield
56'🟨Toby Mullarkey · Crawley Town
64'🟨Charlie Barker · Crawley Town
76'⚽Ruben Roosken · Huddersfield
81'🟨Josh Ruffels · Huddersfield
82'🟨Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
23Shots13
9On target2
9Corners7
6Fouls5
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldCrawley Town
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.18
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.700.62
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smith's Stadium
Ade Adeyemo
· Crawley Town
coach days14.0014.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.732.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.20
dominance (last 5)0.520.51
elo1521.771428.33
elo momentum (last 5)-27.99-41.46
eye test v1-0.82-1.11
eye trend v10.15-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)49.2057.50
form points (last 5)3.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.670.60
league points58.0030.00
league rank8.0022.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.0010.00
matches since win2.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)55.4059.60
rest days7.003.80
scorer concentration0.170.19
season ppg1.610.83
shot diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.20
skill v10.160.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.001.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.00
squad age25.36—
state index-0.58-1.26
sterile dominance v10.581.01
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.16
threat rate (last 5)0.200.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.60