⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Blackpool 1–2 Leyton Orient

← EFL League One 2024-25 Β· Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Kirk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win44%2.16
Leyton Orient win28%3.44
Draw28%3.49

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool βˆ’0.2552%1.88
Leyton Orient βˆ’0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.93

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Charlie Kelman · Leyton Orient
61'⚽Sonny Carey · Blackpool
63'⚽Charlie Kelman · Leyton Orient
64'🟨Jordan Brown · Leyton Orient
66'🟨Albie Morgan · Blackpool
90'🟨Daniel Agyei · Leyton Orient

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots11
8On target4
5Corners5
7Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolLeyton Orient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.780.71
cards avg (last 5)1.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBloomfield Road
coach days195.001110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.931.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.460.41
elo1606.561599.79
elo momentum (last 5)21.68-60.73
eye test v10.30-1.14
eye trend v10.170.01
first sub minute (last 10)61.4053.50
form points (last 5)10.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.89
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.55
keeper form v10.820.75
league points51.0053.00
league rank11.009.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0067.60
possession avg (last 5)43.2048.60
rest days3.807.00
scorer concentration0.190.24
season ppg1.421.47
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.6011.40
skill v1-0.66-0.99
sot against avg (last 5)4.007.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.60
state index0.48-0.77
sterile dominance v1-0.64-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20