← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 38% | 2.50 |
| Stockport win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Stockport +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Kyle Knoyle · Stockport |
| 45' | 🟨 | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Callum Camps · Stockport |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lewis Bate · Stockport |
| 72' | ⚽ | Isaac Olaofe · Stockport |
| 84' | 🟨 | Owen Moxon · Stockport |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 73.00 | 1230.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1604.01 | 1653.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.68 | -10.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| league points | 60.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |