← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
| Reading win | 27% | 3.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Reading +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.64 |
| Over | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Michael Stickland · Reading |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Harvey Knibbs · Reading |
| 55' | ⚽ | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joel Pereira · Reading |
| 75' | 🟨 | Michael Stickland · Reading |
| 75' | 🟥 | Michael Stickland · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Savage · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days | 100.00 | 1349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1529.94 | 1661.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.98 | 7.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| league points | 55.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.31 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |