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Reading 2–0 Wrexham

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham win43%2.20
Draw29%3.31
Reading win27%3.59

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wrexham +0.2552%1.88
Reading +0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.64
Over42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

48'🟨Michael Stickland · Reading
51'⚽ (pen)Harvey Knibbs · Reading
55'⚽Lewis Wing · Reading
68'🟨Joel Pereira · Reading
75'🟨Michael Stickland · Reading
75'🟥Michael Stickland · Reading
90'🟨Charlie Savage · Reading

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots15
4On target3
2Corners3
5Fouls17
2Yellow cards0
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReadingWrexham
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.510.61
cards avg (last 5)0.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSelect Car Leasing Stadium
coach days100.001349.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.621.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.05
dominance (last 5)0.540.49
elo1529.941661.72
elo momentum (last 5)19.987.36
eye test v10.14-0.77
eye trend v10.16-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)57.2061.90
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.760.75
league points55.0068.00
league rank8.002.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4068.80
possession avg (last 5)53.6047.00
rest days3.313.21
scorer concentration0.200.16
season ppg1.571.94
shot diff avg (last 5)3.200.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.00
skill v1-0.05-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.80
state index0.230.59
sterile dominance v10.19-0.54
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40