← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 65% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.18 |
| Stevenage win | 12% | 8.28 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −1 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Stevenage −1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Kieran Dowell · Birmingham |
| 47' | ⚽ | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Cochrane · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Allsop · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Phillips · Stevenage |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 283.00 | 344.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1685.60 | 1533.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.93 | -4.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | — |
| league points | 79.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.42 | — |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |