← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 38% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.11 |
| Shrewsbury win | 31% | 3.21 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.48 |
| Over | 35% | 2.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ben Purrington · Exeter |
| 29' | ⚽ | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 39' | 🟨 | Patrick Jones · Exeter |
| 48' | ⚽ | Demetri Mitchell · Exeter |
| 73' | 🟨 | Dominic Gape · Shrewsbury |
| 80' | 🟨 | Angus MacDonald · Exeter |
| 80' | 🟨 | Vadaine Oliver · Shrewsbury |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ryan Trevitt · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Feeney · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 889.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1501.47 | 1476.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.04 | -44.95 |
| eye test v1 | -1.46 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| league points | 37.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 59.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | -2.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |