← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Burton win | 24% | 4.12 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Bolton +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Aaron Morley · Bolton |
| 29' | 🟨 | John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jack Armer · Burton |
| 47' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ryan Sweeney · Burton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Kyran Lofthouse · Burton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alex Murphy · Bolton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mason Bennett · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 97.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1530.57 | 1605.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.04 | 47.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.30 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.54 |
| league points | 33.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.59 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |