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Northampton 1–1 Stockport

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport win47%2.05
Draw30%3.30
Northampton win24%4.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Northampton +0.553%1.85
Stockport +0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.61
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Terry Taylor · Northampton
38'🟨Sam Hoskins · Northampton
43'🟨Max Dyche · Northampton
49'🟨Terry Taylor · Northampton
66'🟨Brad Hills · Stockport
79'⚽Benoný Breki Andrésson · Stockport

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
4Shots6
1On target4
3Corners3
11Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorthamptonStockport
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.640.65
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSixfields Stadium
coach days93.001219.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.18
dominance (last 5)0.460.60
elo1501.341659.94
elo momentum (last 5)1.23-1.36
eye test v1-0.760.24
eye trend v10.11-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)57.4054.30
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.72—
league points37.0060.00
league rank18.004.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)56.4072.20
possession avg (last 5)42.4050.80
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.290.24
season ppg1.091.76
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.204.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.6012.00
skill v1-2.41-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.905.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.00
state index-0.270.49
sterile dominance v1-1.20-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.23
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00