← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.56 |
| Crawley Town win | 21% | 4.71 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Crawley Town −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Kami Doyle · Crawley Town |
| 14' | ⚽ | James Collins · Lincoln |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jovon Makama · Lincoln |
| 32' | ⚽ | Dom Jefferies · Lincoln |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ben Radcliffe · Crawley Town |
| 88' | ⚽ | Joe Gardner · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| coach days | 489.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1537.70 | 1444.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.16 | -5.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| league points | 43.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |