← EFL League One 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
| Bolton win | 24% | 3.92 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Birmingham +0.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Emil Hansson · Birmingham |
| 39' | ⚽ | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 48' | 🟨 | Taylor Gardner-Hickman · Birmingham |
| 49' | ⚽ | George Thomason · Bolton |
| 53' | 🟨 | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Aaron Morley · Bolton |
| 71' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Johnston · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chris Forino · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Harris · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 62.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1588.55 | 1697.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.10 | 28.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.91 |
| league points | 54.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.42 |
| state index | 0.39 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 130.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |