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Stockport 2–1 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport win48%2.01
Draw27%3.54
Blackpool win24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool −0.552%1.87
Stockport −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Ashley Fletcher · Blackpool
14'🟨Kyle Knoyle · Stockport
16'🟨Lee Evans · Blackpool
17'🟨Ibou Touray · Stockport
47'⚽Benoný Breki Andrésson · Stockport
59'🟨Hayden Coulson · Blackpool
81'⚽Benoný Breki Andrésson · Stockport
84'🟨Lewis Bate · Stockport

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots7
5On target3
4Corners3
13Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStockportBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.640.69
cards avg (last 5)1.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEdgeley Park
coach days1216.00181.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.662.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.09
dominance (last 5)0.590.48
elo1653.281592.91
elo momentum (last 5)3.49-0.73
eye test v10.05-0.06
eye trend v1-0.21-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)54.3056.80
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.670.77
league points57.0044.00
league rank4.0012.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4074.80
possession avg (last 5)51.6050.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.17
season ppg1.731.38
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.8013.80
skill v1-0.36-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
state index0.520.24
sterile dominance v10.03-0.31
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80