← EFL League One 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 38% | 2.50 |
| Northampton win | 32% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Dara Costelloe · Northampton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Terry Taylor · Northampton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
| 87' | ⚽ | Sonny Cox · Exeter |
| 89' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 89' | 🟨 | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dara Costelloe · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 882.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1500.54 | 1499.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.93 | 9.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.47 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 60.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.00 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |